TMC Stock: The Price Action and Latest Developments – What Reddit is Saying
The Curious Case of TMC's After-Hours Surge
The Metals Company (TMC), a firm betting big on deep-sea mining for EV battery metals, saw its stock price jump 24% after hours on November 27, 2025. This followed a 7% gain during the regular session. The catalyst? CFO Craig Shesky, who issued a warning to short sellers during a Rock Stock Channel podcast interview. He even hinted that production might start before the Q4 2027 target, citing potentially faster regulatory approvals. But is this a genuine turnaround, or just a blip in a volatile stock? Let's dive into the numbers.
A Rollercoaster of Volatility
TMC's stock has been anything but stable. While it's up 385% year-to-date, November saw a 17% drop, triggered by easing US-China trade tensions and a less-than-stellar earnings report. The stock previously surged as much as 854% before falling back 49% from its October peak. This kind of volatility is typical for companies in speculative sectors, but it requires a strong stomach for investors.
Shesky's warning to short sellers is interesting, given that 13.7% of TMC's shares are currently sold short. That's a significant chunk. His argument seems to be that the market is underestimating TMC's long-term potential, focusing too much on short-term losses. The company's Q3 report showed a net loss of $184.5 million, a stark contrast to the $20.5 million loss from the previous year. However, TMC ended Q3 with $115 million in cash and access to over $430 million through existing warrants. (The warrants are crucial here, as they represent potential future dilution).
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. August technical assessments valued TMC’s seabed resources at $23.6 billion. The company's market capitalization is only around $2 billion. That's a massive discrepancy. Are investors simply not buying into the long-term vision, or are they skeptical about the feasibility of extracting those resources profitably? The market seems to be applying a hefty discount to those seabed assets.
Deep-Sea Dreams vs. Market Realities
President Trump's April executive order, which aimed to reduce American dependence on Chinese mineral supply chains, certainly opened doors for deep-sea mining companies. TMC is also in ongoing government talks with the Department of Energy and the Pentagon. These discussions suggest potential government support, which could be a significant advantage.
Water Tower Research analyst Dmitry Silversteyn believes that TMC may be self-sufficient for the first time since its public debut. That's a bold claim. It hinges on the company successfully navigating the regulatory hurdles and securing the necessary funding to begin commercial operations.
But the after-hours surge, in my opinion, tells a more nuanced story. It suggests that some investors, at least, are willing to look beyond the immediate losses and focus on the potential long-term payoff. It's like betting on a horse race – you're not just looking at the horse's current form, but also its pedigree and the track conditions. The Metals Company (TMC) Stock Jumps 24% on CFO’s “Short Squeeze” Comments - parameter.io
A High-Risk, High-Reward Gamble
TMC is essentially a pre-revenue company with a highly speculative business model. Investing in it is like buying a lottery ticket – the potential payout is enormous, but the odds of winning are slim. The market capitalization is low relative to the potential resource value, but that value is contingent on a host of factors, including regulatory approvals, technological breakthroughs, and commodity prices. The speed of regulatory clearance is key. If Shesky's prediction is right, and production starts ahead of schedule, that could be a game-changer. But that's a big "if."