Bank of America: What the Data Really Says About Its Outlook

Alright, let's unpack Bank of America's recent pronouncements on the e-commerce triumvirate: Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify. Their analysts are bullish, slapping "Buy" ratings on all three. But are these ratings justified by the numbers, or is this just Wall Street groupthink?

The E-Commerce Landscape: A Three-Horse Race?

First, Amazon. BoA estimates a 13% year-over-year growth in US GMV, excluding Whole Foods, reaching $137 billion in Q3 2025. That's a significant chunk of change. More importantly, they’re claiming a 1.7 percentage point increase in market share, bringing them to a dominant 44.5%. The rationale? Faster delivery speeds driven by inventory placement and robotics. Fine, but how much of that growth is profitable growth? Amazon's a master of top-line expansion, but consistent bottom-line performance is what separates a good investment from a great one. We also can't forget Amazon Web Services (AWS). The company reported that AWS revenue growth accelerated to 20.2% year-over-year in the third quarter.

Then there's Walmart, showing a 28% year-over-year increase in US e-commerce sales. If you back out advertising sales and assume a 10% take rate on third-party GMV (a fairly standard assumption), you're looking at roughly 34% online GMV growth, landing them at $36.1 billion. That translates to a 2.2 percentage point market share expansion, hitting 11.7%. Walmart's touting faster shipping—35% of digital orders delivered in under three hours. But is that sustainable? Are they bleeding cash on those deliveries? The Spark Driver program gets a mention, but details on its actual cost-effectiveness are conspicuously absent.

And finally, Shopify. BoA estimates a 30% year-over-year GMV jump to $57 billion in Q3, resulting in a 3.1 percentage point market share gain to 18.4%. They're adding big brands like Estée Lauder and Mattel, which is a good sign. But Shopify's business model is fundamentally different. They're not selling products directly; they're providing the platform. So, their growth is tied to the success of their merchants. If those merchants start struggling, Shopify's numbers will take a hit.

Digging Deeper: Profitability and Sustainability

Here's where things get interesting. BoA's analysis focuses heavily on GMV growth and market share gains. These are vanity metrics, to some extent. What really matters is profitability and the sustainability of that growth. Are these companies sacrificing margins to gain market share? Are they making smart, long-term investments, or are they just chasing short-term trends?

For example, Amazon's grocery business gets a lot of hype. Management claims grocery shoppers return to the site twice as frequently as non-grocery shoppers. Okay, but what's the average order value for those grocery shoppers? Are they buying other, higher-margin products along with their groceries? And what are the logistics costs associated with delivering perishable goods?

Walmart's push into advertising is another area worth scrutinizing. They're testing new ad formats within their AI shopping assistant, Sparky. The underlying question is whether these ad revenues are truly incremental, or are they cannibalizing existing sales. Are customers annoyed by the ads, leading them to shop elsewhere?

And with Shopify, the biggest risk is competition. The e-commerce platform space is getting crowded, with new players emerging all the time. Can Shopify maintain its competitive edge? Are they innovating fast enough to stay ahead of the curve?

I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and the level of detail on actual profit margins for each segment is always suspiciously vague. (It's almost like they don't want us to know.)

The Nvidia Wildcard

While Bank of America is focused on e-commerce, it's impossible to ignore the elephant in the room: Nvidia. Their analyst, Vivek Arya, projects earnings could surge to $40 per share by 2030, driven by demand for Blackwell chips. The investment bank maintains its “Buy” rating and names Nvidia its top sector choice, highlighting five standout takeaways from the latest earnings call. Management revealed that Blackwell sales are breaking records, that cloud GPU capacity remains completely sold out across all generations, and that newer products are ramping faster than expected. According to a report by Investing.com, these are Top 3 US E-Commerce Stocks Dominating the Market, According to Bank of America.

Nvidia is valued at a market cap of $4.4 trillion, Nvidia is the largest company in the world. The tech stock has returned close to 23,000% to shareholders in the past decade and continues to expand revenue and earnings at a steady pace.

In fiscal Q3 of 2026 (ended in October), Nvidia reported revenue of $57 billion, an increase of 62% year-over-year (YoY). Data center revenue alone reached $51.2 billion, demonstrating the insatiable demand for AI infrastructure that shows no signs of slowing.

This is a completely different type of growth story. But the question then becomes, can that growth continue?

Too Much Hype, Not Enough Substance?

BoA's analysis is, frankly, a bit too optimistic. They're highlighting the positives without adequately addressing the potential risks. The e-commerce landscape is dynamic and competitive, and these companies face significant challenges. While Amazon, Walmart, and Shopify are all strong players, their valuations already reflect much of their future growth potential. Investors need to be cautious about chasing these stocks simply because Bank of America says "Buy." A healthy dose of skepticism is warranted.